EM FX News & Sentiment: what the news says about a currency

EM FX News & Sentiment

• Series. Every covered country has a daily series of public news coverage about it: a tone score per article aggregated into a day's score and article counts by tone (positive / negative / neutral). Where two series describe the same country, the richer one is used for the day. Global topic series (macroeconomic, monetary and fiscal news; blockchain and crypto-asset news; financial-market news) are reported as context and are the same for every country.
• sentiment = the article-weighted mean score of the day, −1 … 1. label follows fixed thresholds: negative ≤ −0.35 < somewhat_negative ≤ −0.15 < neutral < 0.15 ≤ somewhat_positive < 0.35 ≤ positive. positive_share / negative_share = the shares of the day's articles by tone; articles = their number.
• sentiment_7d / sentiment_30d = the mean of the days with a value in the 7 / 30 days ending the day. trend_7d / trend_30d = the day's score minus the mean of the previous 7 / 30 days, in score points; the public trend is up / flat / down by a threshold of 0.03 points.
• sentiment_index = 100 + 20 × (score − mean of the previous 90 days) / their standard deviation, clipped to 0 … 200: 100 is the country's own norm, 80 and 120 are one standard deviation of its own readings away. It is published after 14 days of history. articles_index = the day's articles against the 90-day median × 100.
• Map (/v1/news-sentiment/map) ranks the covered currencies by trend_7d, the sharpest fall first.
• Link with the street rate (Pro): over the last 180 days, for horizons of 1, 3 and 7 days, the Pearson correlation between the day's score and the logarithmic change of the street rate (local currency per USD) over the next days; confidence from the number of pairs and the strength of the correlation (limited = no reliable relationship; medium / high = a relationship worth watching). A negative correlation means a more negative tone tended to precede a weaker currency. It is a statistical relationship over recent history, not a forecast.
• signal = sentiment_drop_rate_stable when the index is at or below 70, the 7-day trend is down and the street rate moved less than 1 % over the previous 7 days — the tone fell while the rate had not reacted yet. A day of limited confidence never signals.
• confidence of a day: high from 100 articles, medium from 20, limited below.
• Days are UTC. The free level is one day behind and covers the free currencies; the latest day arrives with the daily load. The texts of the articles are never stored or published.